Gaza Pullout Leading to Civil War

Gaza Pullout Leading to Civil War?
March 9th, 2004

Israel's plans to unilaterally withdrawal from the Gaza Strip has caused escalated conflict between Israel and Palestinian militant groups as each postures itself for the planned withdrawal. Palestinian militants in fake Israeli army jeeps failed in an assault recently, and 6 Palestinians were killed. Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades said they carried out a joint strike and pledged more attacks. In response, Israel attacked militants in two Gaza Strip refugee camps, killing 15 Palestinians and injuring more than 80. The attacks come at a time when - Israeli commentators have speculated - the army would step up operations against militant groups in the Gaza Strip before Prime Minister Ariel Sharon puts into motion an evolving plan to evacuate settlements in the area.

The withdrawal from the territories could be almost 8 months away, however. Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz suggested that Israel may not withdraw troops from the Gaza Strip before U.S. presidential election. Not only is there concern over how Palestinians and Israelis will act toward one another, but also over what might happen among the Palestinians themselves. There are already growing signs of trouble within the Palestinian territories as the different militia groups fight for control over various cities. Violent crime has been climbing out of control and the PA seems unwilling or unable to enforce a standard of law. Within the Palestinian leadership, there is equal turmoil as hundreds of Fatah members have turned in their memberships in frustration over Arafat's poor leadership and angry at his failure to deliver reforms. It is believed the assassination of one of Arafat's closest advisors earlier this month by masked gunmen was a demonstration of the growing internal strife among Palestinian factions.

Perhaps the biggest fear Israel and the United States have is that the terrorist group Hamas will challenge Arafat after Israel pulls out. Hamas has refused to enter into negotiations with Israel, believing that Israel has no right to any of the land it currently holds. Some analysts believe Hamas has been preparing for such an opportunity for the past two years by investing an estimated $70 million into developing a sophisticated educational and welfare network. This network has encouraged many Palestinians to look to Hamas and not Arafat for their welfare. Islamic charities around the world, often presenting themselves as humanitarian groups, have donated to Hamas and have therefore helped to pay for suicide bombers in Israel and may now be funding a civil war.

Despite the fact that the PA has about 25,000 armed personnel in Gaza Strip alone, some humanitarian activists are calling for International troops to intervene in the territories. Basem 'Eid, founder and director of the east-Jerusalem based Palestinian Human Rights Monitoring Group recommended in a recent article that the Palestinians ask for help from the governments of Egypt, Jordan, and possibly Turkey for protection and security from thugs. "In Tulkarem," he wrote, "the Al-Aqsa Brigades direct and manage the city's civil and security life. They threaten, beat, and kill." Palestinian officials have also called for International troops to come to the area to protect the Palestinians from Israeli attacks. While this may be a legitimate concern of the Palestinian leadership, some believe the hope is that those international troops will also help ensure the PA is installed as the leadership in a Palestinian State, increasing pressure on Hamas and others to follow Arafat.

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